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Trending Pairs for 3+ months LT traders

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發表於 2014-10-15 08:09:27 |顯示全部樓層
對於TREND FOLLOWING HEDGE FUNDS, 因為這幾年表現欠街, 他們只增加分散投資的研究, 但係不去考慮改善入市時間, 這點, 無論請幾多PHD都係無用. 他們太相信BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER的理論。  當然我相信TREND FOLLOWING很快會再賺大錢, 因為金融危機不會消失。

甚麼是TREND, 每個TRADER都不同, 入市準的人, 只要小浪已經可以賺錢, 對於TRENDFOLLOWER, 他們就一定要大浪才可以, 所以比較長線為主。  

以下係COUNTER TREND TRADER對TREND的理解

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lic_cEkjx90




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發表於 2014-10-15 21:16:06 |顯示全部樓層
007 發表於 2014-10-15 07:44
"TREND" OF THE WEEK
long usd/cad

I short USD/CAD with a very big position one hour ago, 1.13693, that was about 7:30am EST 10/15, I sense the USD is weakening today during the .  took profits for 28 pips, 40 pips, 35 pips and still have 20% floating profit. You are right USD/CAD this week trend is up but it looks to me a turning point is these days, starting today maybe. It looks to me Fed do not like strong USD.

Here is why I short USD/CAD on 10/15 NY session.

in the earlier Asian session, I short AUDJPY but cut loss for 40 pips, this pair didn't go down after releasing weak Chinese CPI data, the Yen was weakening during the Asian session as Nikkei climbed up back to 15000 level and close above. AUDJPY leading all yen pairs up (short yen). however, AUD pairs such as AUDJPY, GBPAUD, AUDUSD came back to the average point of Asian session's high and low, so I did not know what to do after losing 40 pips trading AUD. that was 6:30am-7:00am EST. then looking to other USD pairs, EURUSD, GBPUSD, they're near day high, even USDJPY was testing 107.1, and USDCHF was near day low. but USDCAD at all time high had little movement. I did short USDJPY with a big position for only 8 pips profit. But shorting USDCAD wasn't a bad choice in today's New York session. if USD is weakening, USDCAD long will begin taking profits just like GBPUSD and GBPJPY long had to take profit after the results of Scotland vote.
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發表於 2014-10-15 21:42:56 |顯示全部樓層
my last lot of short USDCAD hitting the target 1.13 so all closed out, I took profits too soon
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發表於 2014-10-15 21:56:51 |顯示全部樓層
what the fuck! USDCAD see lowest 1.122, then bounce up crazy! my best shot is taking profits on 1.130, that's another 80 pips!

arrh, I never learned how to let profits run even I am in the right trade
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發表於 2014-10-16 06:41:52 |顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 007 於 2014-10-16 08:33 編輯
win 發表於 2014-10-15 21:56
what the fuck! USDCAD see lowest 1.122, then bounce up crazy! my best shot is taking profits on 1.13 ...

師兄,  以我現實觀察很多成功的TRADER,  假設你入市十次, STOPLOSS係1N, 你會有三次HIT到SL輸1N, 有4,5次可能係贏輸在0.99N之內, 有兩次會贏3N以上。  

即係如果短線, 你STOPLOSS是15點,10次, 你有三次會輸15點, 有4,5次會贏輸在14點內, 可能有兩三次贏45點以上。

3X-15  (-45)
2X-12    (-24)
3X5    (15)
1X45    (45)
1X45    (45)

你這樣也可以贏2.4N,每RISK 150點, 會贏36點。
如果中短線可以長時間做到, 這樣的紀錄, 絕對係世界TOP兩三%的人。  

只是SAMPLE SIZE如果加大, 你有可能會連輸十次以上, 風險不可低估。  

失去一個USD/CAD的機會不太重要, 無可能每次都會中,現實上MISS的次數一定會比較中的次數多很多, 因為無人預測到未來。 但係如果十次無兩次贏>3N的機會, 可能你要讓你的策略CATCH到這樣的機會, 值得花點時間研究.  

師兄, 如果你計過, 你的回報已經有這個水平, 那你只要繼續就可以, 不用改變。



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發表於 2014-10-16 10:07:08 |顯示全部樓層
007 發表於 2014-10-16 06:41
師兄,  以我現實觀察很多成功的TRADER,  假設你入市十次, STOPLOSS係1N, 你會有三次HIT到SL輸1N, 有4 ...

thanks for your comment. however, i had to acknowledge that i short USDCAD ahead of time, that was a little risky. the breakout trade really works, especially for newbies like me. However, i do not know where to take profits, always taking profits too soon, that proves i do not know about the price level, for example i should not put my limit to 1.130, as a matter of fact after breaking 1.130, USDCAD pair triggers the 2nd break out signal and finnally finds support at 1.122 level, that's already 80 pips, at least i should get another 50 pips below 1.130. so overall, i ended up winning only 1/5. i should reverse hand then long USDCAD during bounce for nearly 100 pips. when the price bounce back to 25 pips above 1.130, that's already 100 pips up from the lowest, i feel that the price should go down again, as there's no reason it will go back to day's high, 1.1325 is only 50 pips from days high, that's really a nice position to short again, but too bad that was the time i got to start my office work, also after winning i was afraid of trading again and ended up losing all my profits in the pockets.

Then the rest of the day, i played a little bit with other pairs, with large position then 5-8 pips profits then quit. today was good, but i worried about whether i can continue doing wel in the long run
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發表於 2014-10-18 20:06:10 |顯示全部樓層
win 發表於 2014-10-16 10:07
thanks for your comment. however, i had to acknowledge that i short USDCAD ahead of time, that was ...

http://traderspodcast.com/

如果你喜歡TRADING, 你可以在上班的時候聽聽這個節目,這個節目係討論TRADING有關的所有問題, 例如: TRADING電腦, EA, 心理, 經驗.....    最有趣的地方係會訪問不同經驗不同類型的TRADER。

我喜歡這個節目係因為無太多偏見, 當然技術為主, 不會像有D節目主持只局限自己的方法, 不會只集中討論自己喜歡的方法, 因為最後TRADING真係有很多方法都係WORK的, 要配合自己的性格。  


有幾點分享
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1.
有一樣東西好重要, 玩外匯最重要係每次入市要記得SET好STOPLOSS。  我相信我地大家都有這個良好的習慣, 只是千萬不要忘記輕視.   我自己一入市, 一定要見到入市線(ENTRY <GREEN LINE>)和STOPLOSS線或TRAILINGSTOP自動止賺線<RED LINE>, 才會離開MONITOR。

2.
你現在的方法係discretionary, 即係每次EXIT都要經過當時情況的分析作判斷決定。  這個方法是可行的, 缺點係比較難知道自己的方法是否CONSISTENT。

另一邊就係系統決定的方法, 我開始的時間已經係學這套。  我學的係你要有自己的買入賣出PLAYBOOK。  

例如:
賺<5點, SL不變
賺>5點, 把SL推前兩點
賺>10點, 把SL推到變止賺(TP:TAKE PROFIT@5點)
賺>15點, 把SL推到@10點TP
賺>20點, 把SL推到@15點TP

只跟價格的變化決定EXIT。 PLAYBOOK係經過最少考慮之前數百個TRADE的情況來制定.

我自己喜歡這個方法, 例如USDCAD, 我POST完之後, 升多了八個小時, 之後急跌, 但係我不用理會, 我跟我的PLAYBOOK做, 我用TRAILING STOP幫我處理, 不用思考不用看市, 基本上我係無估高位在那, 因為我無這個技術,但係也可以賺到5N的回報。

最後主要看你的性格來決定用那種方法.

3.
Malcolm Gladwell覺得投入10000個小時你才會在那個領域成功, TRADING一樣, 不會因為看了一本書上了一個課程就立刻學得到, 所以要投入很多時間.  昨天聽traderspodcast覺得幾好的POINT

4.
贏很多錢的時候係最危險的時候, 我們現在也要小心, 不要胡亂加大注碼  

還有很多TOPIC可以留在將來談討......................


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發表於 2014-10-20 18:43:13 |顯示全部樓層
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發表於 2014-10-20 18:48:12 |顯示全部樓層
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發表於 2014-10-20 22:23:39 |顯示全部樓層
hksoros888 發表於 2014-10-20 18:48
How are you going with the turtle trading?
Mine were not good, luckily I used long call options fo ...

that didn't fit my style but it did work out for some breakout trades. I need to be aware of those false breakout
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